(13) NFL Week 1 Touchdown Picks 🤑

More than a DOZEN NFL Week 1 Touchdown Picks in this email!

Everything in this email article is based on FIRST LOOK LEANS. There are no official plays here. Those are reserved for our Discord members through our OddsShopper Picks!

NFL Week 1 Touchdown Picks Leans List

Derrick Henry or Travis Kelce TD Pick (Thursday Night Football)

• Key Insight: Derrick Henry and Travis Kelce are touchdown machines, but touchdown odds for these players vary widely across sportsbooks. For Henry, FanDuel shows -130, while Kelce is boosted to +105.

• Best Value Play: MySpariEdge’s best live odds finder shows a sweet spot on Fliff where Derrick Henry’s touchdown prop is priced at -105. Kelce sits at +110 across several books. This boost gives you significant value compared to competitors.

A.J. Brown TD Pick (Friday Night Football)

• Key Insight: A.J. Brown, with a new offensive coordinator and a healthy offensive line, is primed for a big night. The Eagles’ passing game is set for a strong performance, and Brown’s ability to thrive in the red zone gives him a major upside.

• Best Odds: Pinnacle offers A.J. Brown at +142 to score, while Caesars lists him at +125. The ability to shop the odds makes MySpariEdge your go-to for getting the best value on this play.

Josh Allen TD Pick (Buffalo vs. Arizona)

• Key Insight: Josh Allen is known for his red zone rushing ability. Even with increased competition in the Bills’ offense, Allen’s prop is set at -105, down from the preseason total of nine-and-a-half rushing touchdowns.

• Why It Matters: MySpariEdge highlights that BetMGM offers Allen’s touchdown prop at -105, the best odds available. This play offers excellent value, especially when paired with other smart bets using MySpari’s optimizer.

David Montgomery TD Pick (Lions vs. Rams)

• Key Insight: While everyone’s excited about running back Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery’s red-zone skills can’t be ignored. He’s set to handle the tough carries inside the 10-yard line.

• Best Play: Hard Rock gives Montgomery at -105, with Caesars close behind at -110. If you expect a gritty game, Montgomery could easily punch in a touchdown. MySpariEdge’s odds comparison ensures you’re locking in the best possible return on this bet.

Tyreek Hill TD Pick (Dolphins vs. Jaguars)

• Key Insight: Few players are as dangerous with the ball in their hands as Tyreek Hill. Hill’s speed and big-play potential make him a constant scoring threat. Even against a tough Jags team, Hill has multiple paths to find the end zone.

• Best Odds: MySpariEdge shows FanDuel with the best odds at -115, while Pinny International offers -109. These are competitive lines considering Hill’s TD potential on any touch.

Anthony Richardson TD Pick (Colts vs. Texans)

• Key Insight: As a dual-threat quarterback, Anthony Richardson’s ability to score in the red zone is undeniable. His line at +120 for a rushing touchdown in Week 1 is a steal, especially given his preseason rushing prowess.

• Value Play: Lock this in early. MySpariEdge shows this line will likely tighten as Richardson’s role becomes clearer. Getting him at +120 on sportsbooks like FanDuel could provide significant value.

DK Metcalf TD Pick (Seahawks vs. Broncos)

• Key Insight: Metcalf’s size and physicality give him immense red-zone upside. His Week 1 line is juicy at +175 on ESPN Bet, while other books offer lower odds.

• Best Bet: While the odds on DK are tempting, shopping around with MySpariEdge reveals the best possible line to maximize your payout.

Devante Adams TD Pick (Raiders vs. Chargers)

• Key Insight: Adams remains one of the top red-zone receivers in the game. Despite a shaky QB situation, Adams’ ability to dominate jump balls gives him tremendous TD potential, especially at his current price of +195.

• Why It’s Smart: Gardner Minshew’s gunslinger mentality might actually benefit Adams, giving him extra opportunities in scoring situations. Lock in Adams at +195 before the line shortens.

CeeDee Lamb TD Pick (Cowboys vs. Browns)

• Key Insight: Despite a tough matchup against the Browns, Lamb’s volume in the Cowboys’ passing attack makes him a strong play. Prescott’s healthy return, combined with Dallas’ depleted run game, should lead to heavy targets for Lamb.

• Best Play: MySpariEdge shows plus odds for Lamb to score, which is an excellent bet considering his expected target volume.

Mike Evans TD Pick (Bucs vs. Vikings)

• Key Insight: Mike Evans is Tampa Bay’s top red-zone option and has a track record of consistently finding the end zone. Even with questions at quarterback, Evans’ touchdown odds provide solid value.

• Best Odds: Fliff offers +135 for Evans to score anytime. Evans is a reliable red-zone target, making this line an attractive option in Week 1.

Kyren Williams TD Pick (Rams vs. Lions)

• Key Insight: Kyren Williams is expected to handle significant red-zone duties for the Rams. His ability to contribute as both a runner and receiver makes him a strong play for anytime touchdown props.

• Best Odds: DraftKings lists Williams at -115, giving bettors great value on a player who will likely see high-leverage opportunities near the goal line.

Breece Hall TD Pick (NYJ vs. Bills)

• Key Insight: Breece Hall is expected to play a significant role in the Jets’ offense despite coming off an injury. His touchdown potential as a runner and receiver makes him a great pick in Week 1.

• Best Odds: FanDuel offers +135 for Hall to score anytime, a strong value play for a player likely to see plenty of goal-line touches.

Christian McCaffrey TD Pick (SF vs. Steelers)

• Key Insight: Christian McCaffrey is one of the safest touchdown bets in the league due to his dual-threat ability. Even at a steep price, he’s worth considering for parlays.

• Best Odds: FanDuel lists McCaffrey’s anytime TD odds at -170, a price reflective of his consistent scoring ability. Great for larger parlays or multi-leg bets.

Betting for NFL Week 1

• Shop the Odds: Use tools like MySpariEdge to compare odds across sportsbooks to ensure you’re always getting the best value.

• Be Cautious in Week 1: Many players haven’t had much preseason action, and we could see some sloppy play. Don’t go too heavy on any one game.

Are you interested in trying us out?