Best Bets Trends in NFL Week 11

Let’s dive into the NFL Week 11 Best Bets per the data!

Everything in this email article is based on FIRST LOOK LEANS. Full disclosure: 3 of these picks ended up being official for our OddsShopper Picks members!

NFL Week 11

NFL Pick 1: Lamar Jackson higher 235.5 Pass Yards (-115 BetMGM)

Lamar's line continues to be TOO LOW.

He's racked up 281+ passing yards in six straight starts.

Steelers have allowed 4 of the last 5 QBs to smash the over...

NFL Pick 2: Matt Stafford higher 241.5 Pass Yards (-114 FD Sportsbook)

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being healthy matters.

In the last 10 games with those two healthy, Stafford has passed for 258+ yards in all 10/10 games.

He's thrown for 279+ in 9 of those 10...

NFL Pick 3: Nico Collins (HOU) higher 68.6 Receiving Yards (-120 Fliff)

The Battle for Texas has much less meaning on Monday Night Football this week than it did a few weeks ago.

Two teams going in opposite directions.

Nico has easily cashed all 5/5 games he's played in this season...

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NFL Pick 4: A.J. Brown (PHI) higher 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FD Sportsbook)

A.J. Brown has easily cashed the over at this line in 5-of-6 games.

AJB does not get a high target volume. But his targets are down the field.

Washington Commanders allow 11.2 Yards per completion...

NFL Pick 5: Alvin Kamara (NO) higher 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FD Sportsbook)

In 7 games this season with Derek Carr under center, Kamara has racked up 40+ receiving yards in 6 games

The only under was the Week 1 blowout vs the Panthers where they did not need to pass in the 2H...

NFL Pick 6: Josh Jacobs (GB) higher 68.5 Rushing Yards -115 DK Sportsbook

7 of 9 starting running backs cashed their rushing yards player prop vs the Bears (Joe Mixing getting injured was one of the two misses).

Bears allowing 133 RuY/G (9th worst) and 4.8 Y/A (7th worst) are both positives for Jacobs here...

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NFL Pick 7: 👑 Derrick Henry (BAL) Anytime TD (Rushing TD on Fliff is -160)

Imagine trying to stop King Henry from going where he wants to be...

Steelers have given up 1+ rushing TD to 5 straight teams (7 total Rushing Touchdowns).

Henry is the best RB in the NFL in 2024...

NFL Pick 8: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Anytime TD (+115 Fliff)

Move over David Montgomery, there is a new anytime TD player lock for the Lions.

ARSB has scored in 7 straight games and now faces the Jags who give up 1.9 passing TDs per game (4th worst).

TD dance incoming...

NFL Pick 9: Brock Purdy (SF) higher 36.5 Longest Pass (-115 DK Sportsbook)

Brock Purdy has easily hit the over in 6 straight games with long passes completed of 53, 53, 76 (SEA), 41, 47, and 46 yards.

CMC in the backfield helps with play-action opening up down the field, too...

NFL Pick 10: Jalen Hurts (PHI) lower 27.5 Pass Attempts (-114 FD Sportsbook)

Hurts has been under this line in 5 straight games.

Opposing QBs vs the Commanders have gone UNDER in 9/10 games this season for this prop market.

WAS allows the least PA/G (27.00) in the NFL...

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