Welcome to the DFSnDonuts Newsletter!
Let’s dive into the NFL Week 11 Best Bets per the data!
Everything in this email article is based on FIRST LOOK LEANS. Full disclosure: 3 of these picks ended up being official for our OddsShopper Picks members!
NFL Week 11
NFL Pick 1: Lamar Jackson higher 235.5 Pass Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Lamar's line continues to be TOO LOW.
He's racked up 281+ passing yards in six straight starts.
Steelers have allowed 4 of the last 5 QBs to smash the over...
Lamar Jackson’s Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 2: Matt Stafford higher 241.5 Pass Yards (-114 FD Sportsbook)
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being healthy matters.
In the last 10 games with those two healthy, Stafford has passed for 258+ yards in all 10/10 games.
He's thrown for 279+ in 9 of those 10...
Matt Stafford’s Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 3: Nico Collins (HOU) higher 68.6 Receiving Yards (-120 Fliff)
The Battle for Texas has much less meaning on Monday Night Football this week than it did a few weeks ago.
Two teams going in opposite directions.
Nico has easily cashed all 5/5 games he's played in this season...
Nico Collins’ Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
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NFL Pick 4: A.J. Brown (PHI) higher 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FD Sportsbook)
A.J. Brown has easily cashed the over at this line in 5-of-6 games.
AJB does not get a high target volume. But his targets are down the field.
Washington Commanders allow 11.2 Yards per completion...
A.J. Browns’ Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 5: Alvin Kamara (NO) higher 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FD Sportsbook)
In 7 games this season with Derek Carr under center, Kamara has racked up 40+ receiving yards in 6 games
The only under was the Week 1 blowout vs the Panthers where they did not need to pass in the 2H...
Alvin Kamara’s Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 6: Josh Jacobs (GB) higher 68.5 Rushing Yards -115 DK Sportsbook
7 of 9 starting running backs cashed their rushing yards player prop vs the Bears (Joe Mixing getting injured was one of the two misses).
Bears allowing 133 RuY/G (9th worst) and 4.8 Y/A (7th worst) are both positives for Jacobs here...
Josh Jacobs’ Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
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NFL Pick 7: 👑 Derrick Henry (BAL) Anytime TD (Rushing TD on Fliff is -160)
Imagine trying to stop King Henry from going where he wants to be...
Steelers have given up 1+ rushing TD to 5 straight teams (7 total Rushing Touchdowns).
Henry is the best RB in the NFL in 2024...
Derrick Henry’s Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 8: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Anytime TD (+115 Fliff)
Move over David Montgomery, there is a new anytime TD player lock for the Lions.
ARSB has scored in 7 straight games and now faces the Jags who give up 1.9 passing TDs per game (4th worst).
TD dance incoming...
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 9: Brock Purdy (SF) higher 36.5 Longest Pass (-115 DK Sportsbook)
Brock Purdy has easily hit the over in 6 straight games with long passes completed of 53, 53, 76 (SEA), 41, 47, and 46 yards.
CMC in the backfield helps with play-action opening up down the field, too...
Brock Purdy’s Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
NFL Pick 10: Jalen Hurts (PHI) lower 27.5 Pass Attempts (-114 FD Sportsbook)
Hurts has been under this line in 5 straight games.
Opposing QBs vs the Commanders have gone UNDER in 9/10 games this season for this prop market.
WAS allows the least PA/G (27.00) in the NFL...
Jalen Hurts’ Props Player Card via MySpariEdge.com
