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Your NFL Week 1 Betting Preview (all 16 games!)
DFSnDonuts provides leans for EVERY single game, sides, totals, and player props!
DFS n' Donuts
September 04, 2024
I have TWO NFL Week 1 Betting articles in this email that will cover all 16 games!
Everything in this email article is based on FIRST LOOK LEANS. There are no official plays here. Those are reserved for our Discord members through our OddsShopper Picks!
Your NFL Week 1 Player Props Preview
1. Chiefs vs. Lions
Lean: Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions
Line: BetR app
Analysis: The juice is heavy across sportsbooks, indicating strong confidence in Zay Flowers. With Baltimore’s offense needing a dynamic target, Flowers is set for a big role. Expect him to easily surpass 4.5 receptions in a game that could feature plenty of passing.
2. Colts vs. Texans
Lean: Anthony Richardson o19.5 Pass Comp
Line: FanDuel – 224 yards
Analysis: Juiced lines across many sportsbooks. Healthy and has a budding offense surrounding him. Potentially playing in a shootout against the offensive juggernaut that could be the Houston Texans.
3. Packers vs. Eagles
Lean: Devonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions
Line: BetR app
Analysis: This game could turn into a high-scoring affair. Smith’s chemistry with Jalen Hurts and his role as a key target makes this lean strong. With an international game on tap, expect the Eagles to keep the ball moving through the air.
4. Bills vs. Patriots
Lean: Josh Allen Anytime TD
Line: Fliff -125
Analysis: Allen’s ability to find the end zone with his legs is always a threat, especially in tough matchups. Josh Allen is always a threat in the red zone.
5. Jaguars vs. Dolphins
Lean: Travis Etienne Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts
Line: BetR app
Analysis: Etienne will be the workhorse for Jacksonville in Week 1. Given the game script and the Jaguars’ desire to establish the run, this lean on Etienne to hit over 14.5 attempts feels solid.
6. Bears vs. Titans
Lean: Caleb Williams Over 19.5 Completions
Line: PrizePicks
Analysis: The rookie has a surrounding cast that could really help him thrive in Year 1. The matchup could be sneaky for a shootout.
7. 49ers vs. Jets
Lean: Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions
Line: FanDuel -125
Analysis: Wilson has become a focal point of the Jets’ offense. In a tough matchup against San Francisco, the Jets will likely target him often, giving him plenty of chances to go over 5.5 receptions. Books have juiced this line virtually everywhere but FanDuel.
8. Giants vs. Vikings
Lean: Wandale Robinson Under 3.5 Receptions
Line: BetR app
Analysis: The Giants’ offense will struggle to spread the ball around effectively. With a crowded receiver group and the Vikings’ defensive pressure, Robinson could be limited in opportunities, making this lean one to watch.
Everything in this email article is based on FIRST LOOK LEANS. There are no official plays here. Those are reserved for our Discord members through our OddsShopper Picks!
Your NFL Week 1 Betting Preview
Thursday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -3
Total: 46.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -155, Ravens +130
The NFL is kicking things off with a banger as the Ravens head to Arrowhead to take on the Super Bowl-favorite Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes will debut his “new-look” offense, and Lamar Jackson is back healthy, which makes this one an intriguing matchup.
Key Insights:
Chiefs are favored but only by a field goal, indicating the game could be tight.
The total is set at 46.5, which is reasonable, but it could hit under if we see some Week 1 rust.
Look at Derrick Henry or Travis Kelce to score a touchdown at +100 on DraftKings. It’s one of the better value bets for a game where scoring could be at a premium early.
Recommendation: Stay light on the bets here as Week 1 often has surprises. Consider a Chiefs moneyline parlay with a Mahomes passing touchdown to reduce juice.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3
Total: 49
Moneyline: Eagles -135, Packers +124
This Friday night game could offer fireworks with two high-powered offenses. Jordan Love gets the start for Green Bay against an Eagles team looking to build off last year’s strong season.
Key Insights:
With a 49-point total, Vegas expects points, and so should you. Green Bay will likely need to pass to keep up with Philly’s offense.
Jordan Love over 253.5 passing yards is a solid prop bet. If the Packers fall behind, expect Love to air it out.
DeVonta Smith receptions: He will be a big target in this offense, and his line is worth considering for an over.
Recommendation: Bet the Packers +3 or sprinkle some on the moneyline at +124. This game is closer than it appears, and Love could surprise in his starting debut.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Texans -2.5
Total: 43.5
Moneyline: Texans -135, Colts +120
The Colts are home underdogs against the Texans, and this game has the makings of an upset. Anthony Richardson is back under center, and Indy could come out fired up.
Key Insights:
Colts moneyline at +120 is a solid value. They played Houston tough last season, splitting their matchups.
Houston has added Stefon Diggs and boasts a more polished offense, but the Colts defense and home advantage could turn the tide.
Jonathan Taylor rushing props will be worth watching if he gets the bulk of the work in Week 1.
Recommendation: Colts moneyline +120 is a bet to consider. If you’re looking for more security, take Colts +3.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -6
Total: 46
Moneyline: Bills -298, Cardinals +240
The Bills kick off their season at home, hosting an Arizona Cardinals team led by Kyler Murray and rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. Buffalo enters the season with high expectations, while Arizona looks to bounce back from an underwhelming 2023.
Key Insights:
The Bills are heavily favored at home, but a 6-point spread offers some value. With a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen, Buffalo will look to set the tone early.
Arizona returns Kyler Murray after his injury, along with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., who should be a key focal point. Expect growing pains as Murray and Harrison build chemistry.
Josh Allen rushing props should be on your radar. The Bills will likely feature Allen’s dual-threat ability, especially against an Arizona defense that’s been shaky against mobile quarterbacks.
Recommendation: Bills -6. The Cardinals have offensive weapons, but Buffalo’s home advantage and seasoned roster should give them the edge. For added value, consider Josh Allen anytime touchdown.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -8
Total: 43.5
Moneyline: Bengals -410, Patriots +320
The Bengals are heavy home favorites against a New England team amid rebuilding. With Joe Burrow leading the way, Cincinnati enters as one of the AFC’s top contenders.
Key Insights:
Cincinnati’s offense, led by Joe Burrow, should have no trouble moving the ball against New England’s defense. Expect a strong showing from Ja’Marr Chase if he plays, though his status will need monitoring.
Bengals -8 feels like a steep spread, but considering the Patriots’ offensive struggles and lack of firepower, Cincinnati could cover if they get out to an early lead.
Recommendation: The Bengals should win this one easily, but betting a -8 spread is risky. Consider a Bengals moneyline parlay or look at under 43.5, as New England might struggle to put points on the board.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -3
Total: 47.5
Moneyline: Dolphins -145, Jaguars +125
This game has the potential to be one of Week 1’s more entertaining matchups. Jacksonville has added key pieces on offense, while Miami boasts a potent passing attack led by Tua Tagovailoa and a stable of explosive receivers.
Key Insights:
Jacksonville +3 offers value, especially considering their improved offense and potential to keep this game close. Trevor Lawrence has a solid supporting cast and could leap this season.
Miami’s explosive receiving corps, including Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, will challenge Jacksonville’s secondary, making the Dolphins team total a prop to consider.
If you’re looking for value, consider Devon Achane anytime touchdown for Miami. He’s expected to play a key role in this offense and has big play ability every time he touches the football.
Recommendation: The value here is in Jaguars +3 or taking a shot at Jaguars moneyline +125. If you roll with the Dolphins moneyline, consider parlaying with the Buffalo Bills or another favorite we like.
Over the years, I’ve attempted to establish myself as one of the premier sports bettors in the industry.
In addition to perfecting my craft, I’ve gone out of my way to publicly sync all my sports betting apps to Pikkit to ensure I am one of the most transparent cappers in the space.
