NFL Week 18: Saturday Night Football

NFL Player Prop Trend: Joe Burrow 250+ Pass Yards

Joe Burrow is on absolute fire, averaging a scorching 331 passing yards over his last eight games (hitting the Over in all eight!). There’s no reason to expect a slowdown against a Steelers defense that’s been picked apart through the air, especially if the Bengals lean away from a banged-up backfield. Pittsburgh has given up the third-highest completion rate (70.3%) and a 52.2% dropback success rate over the past five weeks, and with books posting Burrow’s attempts around 38.6 to 40.5, he can easily eclipse 250+ yards—at 35 or more attempts he averages 314 yards (85% hit rate). He’s also torched the Steelers in three straight when throwing 25+ times (334 yards per game!).

NFL Player Prop Trend: Ja’Marr Chase 65+ Receiving Yards

Ja’Marr Chase is an unstoppable force, racking up an insane 127 receiving yards per game over his last seven (going 7 for 7 on the Over!). Plus, he’s averaged 98 yards in his last three games against Pittsburgh. With Tee Higgins and Chase Brown both potentially limited, Chase’s 65+ yard outlook becomes even more attractive. Books have his receptions line at around 7.5 or 8.5, and at six or more catches he’s averaging 113 yards over his last 20 games (85% hit rate).

NFL Player Prop Trend: Bengals +7.5

Cincinnati is playing much better football right now, and the Steelers’ offense can’t seem to hit 20 points (they’ve failed to do so in five of their last seven games). If Baltimore wins the early Saturday game, the Steelers could choose to rest key players, putting the Bengals in an even better position to cover +7.5. In fact, they might even pull off the outright upset, so if you’re feeling bold, jump on the moneyline. If you like to play it safe, enjoy that comfy 7.5-point cushion.

FYI: I combined all three on Hard Rock @ -120 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡

Ready to do your own research or find trends like this?