TDs Allowed: Jacksonville has allowed only 3 passing TDs — tied for the fewest in the NFL — and 2 rushing TDs — T-24th most. Philadelphia has allowed only four passing TDs but 7 rushing TDs — tied for 2nd-most in football. That immediately points the Jacksonville touchdown search toward the ground.

Bhayshul Tuten has the best Jacksonville TD profile. Last week he reached a season-high 59% snap share and 68% designed-carry share while finishing with 19 touches and 91 total yards. Two of his touchdowns were also erased by holding penalties, so the box score undersold how close he was to a huge scoring game.

Philadelphia's offensive situation makes Jacksonville even more attractive. Saquon Barkley is dealing with a hamstring injury and has missed consecutive practices, while DeVonta Smith and multiple other Eagles are also banged up.

If betting Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts is still the player I'd investigate first because his rushing ability can create TD equity even when the Eagles' normal offense is compromised.

Jacksonville has been extremely difficult to score on overall, allowing only five total touchdowns through four games, so I don't love forcing an Eagles scorer at a short number.

TDs Allowed: Cleveland has allowed 9 passing TDs — T-6th most — but ZERO rushing touchdowns, the best mark in football. New York has allowed 5 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs.

That split is extremely important for the Jets. Rather than attacking Cleveland with a running back TD, Garrett Wilson is the scorer I want to investigate first.

Breece Hall continues to deal with a quad injury and appears likely to miss another game, which would again elevate Braelon Allen's workload. However, Cleveland having allowed zero rushing TDs through four games makes Allen much less attractive at a short anytime-TD price.

Cleveland can attack New York more evenly. Quinshon Judkins has the cleaner traditional RB scoring profile, while Deshaun Watson adds his own rushing-TD path.

Watson is averaging 7.8 rushing attempts and 31.8 rushing yards per game, which keeps a QB rushing-score sprinkle interesting in a low-total game where traditional touchdowns may be scarce.

TDs Allowed: Green Bay has allowed 7 rushing TDs — T-2nd most in the NFL — plus 6 passing TDs. Chicago has surrendered only four passing TDs and three rushing TDs.

Even more importantly, opponents are converting 85.7% of red-zone possessions into touchdowns against Green Bay — worst in football.

This makes the Chicago lead RB one of the strongest positional TD spots of Week 5, but the injury situation matters. D'Andre Swift returned to limited practice Thursday while Kyle Monangai missed his second consecutive practice.

If Swift is healthy enough for his normal role, his matchup is excellent. If Monangai winds up receiving the heavier workload instead, the role is more important than the name because Green Bay's goal-line defense has been awful.

On the Packers side, I prefer receiving scorers. Matthew Golden has five red-zone targets and seven deep targets while leading Green Bay with a 22.7% target share and 27% first-read share.

Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft also deserve consideration, while Green Bay's three-man RB committee lowers confidence in selecting one Packers rushing scorer.

TDs Allowed: Miami has surrendered 7 passing TDs — T-8th most — and 4 rushing TDs — T-11th most. Cincinnati has allowed only four passing and three rushing scores.

Chase Brown has the cleanest Cincinnati TD profile because he's attached to a team favored by nearly a touchdown with an implied total around 24.5.

The Bengals' receiving situation is critical. Ja'Marr Chase remains in concussion protocol and Tee Higgins has missed consecutive practices with groin/neck issues, so their final availability can completely reshape Cincinnati's red-zone distribution.

If Chase and/or Higgins sit, Joe Burrow still gets a defense that has allowed seven passing scores. That would make players like Mike Gesicki substantially more interesting at longer TD prices.

Miami has a tougher matchup. Cincinnati has surrendered just seven offensive TDs through the air/ground combined.

Ollie Gordon did seize a larger workload last week — 56.8% snaps and 50% of Miami's rushing attempts — giving him the most interesting Dolphins RB TD profile if you're looking for an underdog scorer.

TDs Allowed: Las Vegas has allowed 7 passing TDs — T-8th most — and four rushing TDs. New England has allowed five passing TDs and four rushing scores.

Drake Maye is intriguing because Las Vegas has been significantly more vulnerable through the air. New England dramatically increased its motion and play-action rates last week, and Maye responded with the QB1 fantasy performance of the week.

That makes Patriots pass catchers like Romeo Doubs and Hunter Henry interesting TD candidates rather than automatically defaulting to the Patriots backfield.

For Las Vegas, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers remain the two players with the strongest combination of talent and role concentration.

New England has allowed only 19.2 points per game, so I would demand a better price on Raiders scorers than Patriots scorers.

TDs Allowed: New Orleans has surrendered a league-high 9 rushing TDs — 1st-most in the NFL — plus seven passing touchdowns. Minnesota has allowed only 1 rushing TD and 3 passing TDs, making the Vikings one of the league's hardest defenses to score against.

This is one of the strongest statistical rushing-TD matchups on the board for Aaron Jones.

Jones has operated as Minnesota's bell cow since Week 2, playing at least 73.1% of snaps while averaging 23 touches and 108.4 total yards per game during that span.

The matchup gets even better beyond the raw touchdowns: New Orleans has allowed the second-highest rushing success rate and third-highest explosive-run rate.

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are both battling injuries. Jefferson has been limited with his ankle issue after missing Week 4, while Addison returned to limited practice Thursday.

New Orleans scorers draw the exact opposite matchup. Minnesota has allowed only four total offensive touchdowns all season.

Juwan Johnson is the one Saints TD specialist who still catches my attention because he already has seven red-zone targets.

TDs Allowed: Tennessee has allowed four passing and four rushing TDs. Houston has allowed 6 passing TDs and 5 rushing TDs — the latter T-9th most.

The low game total is the first thing that stands out. This isn't a matchup where I want to manufacture five different touchdown bets.

Nico Collins is easily my favorite Houston receiving scorer. He's the clear premium pass catcher in an offense projected to control the game.

Houston's backfield is less attractive for TD betting because David Montgomery and Woody Marks continue splitting work. Since Week 2, Marks has handled roughly one-third of the rushing share.

Tennessee's team total of roughly 15 points makes its TD market naturally difficult to attack.

If looking for a Titan, Tony Pollard is the player I'd investigate first, especially because Houston has already allowed five rushing scores.

TDs Allowed: Washington has surrendered 11 passing TDs — tied for the MOST in the NFL — while allowing only three rushing scores. New York has allowed 9 passing TDs — T-6th most — and only two rushing touchdowns.

This screams receiving TDs rather than RB TDs on both sides.

Malik Nabers returned to practice Thursday while managing his knee injury. If he's active and reasonably healthy, he gets one of the best pure passing-TD matchups available.

Isaiah Likely is another Giants receiving option worth investigating, especially if Nabers isn't 100%.

Jayden Daniels practiced in full earlier this week and is expected back, although he may run less while wearing a brace on his non-throwing arm.

Washington's receiver situation remains messy because Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs have both been dealing with hamstring injuries.

Whoever emerges healthy for Washington gets a Giants defense that has already surrendered nine passing TDs.

TDs Allowed: Indianapolis has allowed 6 passing TDs and 5 rushing TDs — T-9th most rushing scores. Pittsburgh has surrendered five passing touchdowns and only three rushing scores.

Jonathan Taylor remains Indianapolis' premier TD candidate because his goal-line role is far cleaner than trying to guess which Colts pass catcher finds the end zone.

Tyler Warren is my favorite receiving pivot. His role has been strong enough that FantasyPros lists both Taylor and Warren among Indianapolis' must-start players this week.

Pittsburgh's better TD matchup is on the ground because Indianapolis has allowed five rushing scores.

That makes Jaylen Warren particularly interesting if Rico Dowdle's toe injury leaves Warren with the clear lead role.

DK Metcalf is the obvious Pittsburgh receiving scorer to examine if you want exposure to Aaron Rodgers' passing game.

TDs Allowed: Los Angeles has allowed 6 rushing TDs — T-5th most — and six passing scores. Denver has allowed six passing and four rushing TDs.

That six-rushing-TD number makes Denver's rushing attack the first place I want to look.

The problem is figuring out exactly who owns the premium touches between J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Because of that uncertainty, Bo Nix rushing TD markets can be an interesting way to attack the Chargers' weakness without guessing the RB split.

Los Angeles has struggled defensively beyond touchdowns as well, allowing one of the league's higher passing success rates.

The Chargers backfield has become much less attractive. Omarion Hampton was down to 32.4% of snaps and 28.1% of the rushing share last week in a three-man committee.

That pushes me toward Chargers receivers rather than Hampton if I want Los Angeles exposure.

This is one of the premier touchdown games on the entire Week 5 slate.

TDs Allowed: Arizona has surrendered 11 passing TDs — tied for MOST in the NFL. Detroit has also surrendered 11 passing TDs — tied for MOST — plus 6 rushing TDs, T-5th most.

That's 22 combined passing touchdowns allowed through four games between these defenses.

Detroit carries an enormous implied total of approximately 30 points, making Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta all high-end TD candidates.

Because Arizona has allowed only three rushing TDs compared with 11 through the air, Amon-Ra and LaPorta may provide an even cleaner matchup-specific path than simply paying the premium on Gibbs.

Arizona gets an equally enticing matchup. Michael Wilson owns eight red-zone targets — third-most among wide receivers — along with a 27% target share and 35.7% first-read share.

Trey McBride is another premium Arizona scorer, while Jeremiyah Love gets a Detroit defense that has already allowed six rushing scores.

TDs Allowed: Seattle has surrendered only 1 rushing TD — T-2nd fewest — plus six passing scores. San Francisco has allowed just 4 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs.

Unlike Detroit-Arizona, this is a good game environment featuring two defenses that have been difficult to score against.

Christian McCaffrey remains impossible to ignore because his role gives him both rushing and receiving TD paths, but Seattle allowing only one rushing touchdown is a legitimate matchup concern at a short price.

George Kittle could be an attractive alternative if the market makes CMC extremely expensive.

Seattle's Emanuel Wilson earned 24 touches, 120 total yards and two TDs last week, establishing himself as the lead back.

The problem: San Francisco has surrendered only two rushing scores. That makes Jaxon Smith-Njigba the Seattle scorer I'd prefer at equivalent prices.

TDs Allowed: Baltimore has allowed 6 rushing TDs — T-5th most — but only four passing TDs. Atlanta is almost the reverse: just 2 rushing TDs allowed but 7 passing TDs — T-8th most.

That creates two very clear matchup-specific directions: Bijan Robinson for Atlanta and Baltimore pass catchers on the other side.

Bijan gets the exact type of matchup we want for an anytime TD: elite role against a defense that has already surrendered six rushing scores.

Derrick Henry remains an elite TD scorer by role, but the matchup isn't nearly as good. Atlanta has allowed only two rushing touchdowns and 48.2 rushing yards per game, the best rushing-yardage defense in football.

Lamar Jackson did not practice Thursday because of his ankle injury, putting Tyler Huntley in position to start if Jackson can't go.

If Huntley starts, Mark Andrews becomes particularly interesting. Andrews owns a 22.9% target share, 26% first-read share and three red-zone targets, and Atlanta has already allowed productive TE scoring performances.

Zay Flowers' foot injury also needs monitoring.

Another elite touchdown environment. This game is tied with Detroit-Arizona for the highest total of Week 5.

TDs Allowed: Buffalo has surrendered 10 passing TDs — T-4th most in football — but only three rushing TDs. The Rams have allowed 7 passing TDs but only 1 rushing TD — T-2nd fewest.

Those splits point heavily toward receiving TDs on both sides.

Puka Nacua is one of my favorite overall TD profiles in this matchup because Buffalo has been far more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.

Davante Adams gives Matthew Stafford another high-end scoring weapon and could provide better odds than Puka while attacking the same defensive weakness.

Kyren Williams still has an elite role, but Buffalo surrendering only three rushing TDs makes this a less automatic rushing-score matchup than the huge Rams team total initially suggests.

Buffalo has the opposite problem: Los Angeles has allowed only one rushing score, making a James Cook anytime TD potentially expensive relative to the matchup.

Josh Allen can obviously override any matchup, but Dalton Kincaid and Buffalo's receiving options deserve serious consideration because the Rams have surrendered seven passing TDs.

Stafford has a great environment for a bounce-back game; Buffalo has also allowed the fifth-most passing yards and one of the league's higher passing success rates.

Aaron Jones vs. NO — 9 rushing TDs allowed, MOST NFL

Chicago RB vs. GB — 7 rushing TDs allowed, T-2nd most

Bhayshul Tuten vs. PHI — 7 rushing TDs allowed, T-2nd most

Bijan Robinson vs. BAL — 6 rushing TDs allowed, T-5th most

Denver rushing game vs. LAC — 6 rushing TDs allowed, T-5th most

Jeremiyah Love vs. DET — 6 rushing TDs allowed, T-5th most

Detroit receivers vs. ARI — 11 passing TDs allowed, T-MOST

Arizona receivers vs. DET — 11 passing TDs allowed, T-MOST

Giants receivers vs. WAS — 11 passing TDs allowed, T-MOST

Rams receivers vs. BUF — 10 passing TDs allowed, T-4th most

Jets receivers vs. CLE — 9 passing TDs allowed, T-6th most

Washington receivers vs. NYG — 9 passing TDs allowed, T-6th most

Aaron Jones — MIN

Bijan Robinson — ATL

Bhayshul Tuten — JAX

Jahmyr Gibbs — DET

Chase Brown — CIN

Jonathan Taylor — IND

Christian McCaffrey — SF

Ashton Jeanty — LV

Quinshon Judkins — CLE