Top NBA Player Trends: Friday, December 20, 2024

Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 0.5 Turnovers

Jaquez Jr. has been remarkably consistent in giving the rock away at least once per game. He’s hit this mark in 19 of his last 20 contests (95%), including a flawless 10-for-10 stretch in his most recent outings. On the season, he’s averaging 1.5 turnovers, which is well above this low bar. While Miami as a team averages just 12.3 turnovers per game, Jaquez Jr. is carving out his own niche in that department. With his track record, even a disciplined Heat squad shouldn’t stop him from coughing up at least one turnover again tonight.

Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 3-Pointers

Though not traditionally a sniper, Bam has recently stepped beyond the arc with confidence. He’s averaging 1.2 made threes over his last 20 games and has cashed at least one triple in 16 of those contests (an 80% hit rate in his last 10 specifically). Opponents like OKC have recently allowed big men to stretch the floor, with Brook Lopez raining in three treys and Alperen Şengün adding one. Given Bam’s newfound willingness to let it fly, he’s poised to capitalize on a vulnerability the Thunder have shown inside-out.

Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks

Wallace, coming off the bench, has transformed into a defensive machine. In his last 10 games, he’s averaged a hefty 2.9 steals+blocks, hitting the over in 8 of those (80%). Stretch that sample to 20 games, and he’s still at that 80% mark, showing remarkable consistency. With the Thunder leading the league in recent steals (12.4 per game over their last 10), the defensive environment around Wallace only enhances his opportunity to keep stuffing the stat sheet. He’s a disruptive presence who seems to thrive in high-energy defensive scenarios.

Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Assists

Herro’s playmaking at home has been pure gold. He’s averaged 5.1 assists in his last eight home games, hitting this line every single time—an 8-for-8 heater. Overall, he’s clearing this line at an 83% rate at home compared to just 67% on the road. Against a Thunder squad that’s allowed 5.8 APG to opposing point guards over the last 7 games, Herro’s comfort in Miami’s friendly confines sets the table for another productive passing night. With the ball in his hands and the Heat offense humming, he’s a great bet to dish at least four dimes yet again.

Tyrese Maxey Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks

Maxey’s defensive hustle has been off the charts lately. He’s averaged 2.8 combined steals+blocks over his last 10 games, clearing this number in 9 of them (a 90% hit rate). At home, he’s been unbeatable, crushing this line in every game on his home floor. Historically, he’s also dominated the Hornets, posting a 3.5 steals+blocks average in his last two meetings against them. Considering Charlotte’s recent generosity to opposing point guards—3.1 steals+blocks allowed over their last 6—the stage is set for Maxey to shine again and pad those defensive numbers.

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