Top NBA Player Trends: Monday, December 16, 2024

Michael Porter Jr. (Over 8.5 Reb+Ast)

Porter’s been a powerhouse on the boards and with assists lately, hitting this mark in 9 of his last 10 games and averaging a healthy 10.2 RA. Facing the Kings, who rank 2nd-worst in rebounds allowed to SFs over the last 7 games, this prop looks primed for another payday.

Dru Smith (Over 0.5 Turnovers)

Talk about a low bar—Smith has gone over this line in seven straight, averaging 1.2 turnovers. With Josh Richardson still sidelined, Smith’s minutes are up, and he’s facing a Pistons squad that loves to push the tempo. At 23+ MPG, he’s hit this in 8/8 career games, making it a no-brainer.

James Harden (Over 3.5 Turnovers)

Harden’s turnover trend is hard to miss: 100% hit rate over his last 10 and an 80% hit rate this season. While the Jazz aren’t exactly known for forcing TOs, Harden’s recent numbers are too compelling to ignore if you’re looking to back a reliable prop.

Terry Rozier (Over 0.5 Turnovers)

Rozier’s turnover prop might seem simple, but he’s cleared it in 80% of his last 10 road games and 82% of road games this season. Against the Pistons—who set a high-pace tempo—Rozier’s history suggests he’ll give one away tonight.

Collin Sexton (Over 16.5 Pts+Reb)

Sexton’s been on a tear, hitting at a 90% clip over his last 10 while averaging 19.3 PR. With his minutes up to around 29 MPG and the Clippers’ recent generosity to opposing SG rebounds (Clippers are allowing the 7th most Rebounds to SG over the last 7 games), Sexton’s over looks like a quality choice.

Evan Mobley (Over 1.5 Free Throws Made)

Mobley’s free throw success is one of the safer bets: 87% over his last 15 games and 75% for the season. He’s averaged more than 2 FTM against the Nets in his career, and with Brooklyn ranking among the league’s most foul-prone teams (Nets averaged the 4th most Fouls this season. Over the last 7 games they moved up to 3rd most in fouls), expect Mobley to cash in at the line.

Bam Adebayo (Over 0.5 3-Pointers Made)

Bam’s been letting it fly lately, hitting this at an 80% clip in his last 10 and 100% in his last 3 road games against the Pistons. Considering Detroit’s inability to stop centers from beyond the arc (Pistons are allowing the 3rd most three-pointers from Centers over the last 7 games), this is an intriguing, off-the-radar pick.

Christian Braun (Over 0.5 Steals)

Braun has been a stealthy pickpocket, going 6-for-6 recently and hitting at 82% at home. He’s also maintained a perfect record against the Kings, and with Denver among the league’s leaders in steals (Nuggets are ranked 6th in most steals over the last 7 games), this prop is ripe for the taking.

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