Top NBA Player Trends: Thursday, December 19, 2024

Brandon Boston Jr. (Over 0.5 Steals)

Brandon Boston Jr. is currently on an incredible hot streak, nabbing at least one steal in 18 straight games. Even more impressive, he’s done it 11 times in a row on the road. Over that span, he’s averaging well above 1 steal per contest, showcasing his improved defensive instincts. His next challenge is a Rockets squad coughing up 8.5 steals per game over their last 10, and remember, the Pelicans are 3rd in steals league-wide. Boston Jr. should have every opportunity to record another swipe.

Daniel Gafford (Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds)

Gafford has been a model of consistency, surpassing this line in 17 of 18 games this season—an astonishing 94% hit rate. When he last faced the Clippers, he ended up with a solid 19 Points+Rebounds, proving he can thrive against this matchup. Recently, centers have feasted on L.A., with players like Jokic (23 PR), Sengun (21 PR), and Ayton (19 PR) putting up big numbers. Gafford’s line remains modest compared to these big names, and his strong track record suggests he can once again clear 15 combined points and rebounds without breaking a sweat.

Josh Hart (Over 0.5 Three-Pointers)

Hart’s outside shooting has been pure gold lately: he’s connecting on 1.4 three-pointers per game overall (81% hit rate), and that bumps up to 1.5 per game over his last 10 (90% hit rate). Even better, he’s hit at least one triple in each of his last 8 road games—100% success. While the Timberwolves’ defense is no joke, Hart nailed two treys the last time he faced them. Given his steady volume and reliable stroke, grabbing at least one from beyond the arc should be in the bag.

Dalton Knecht (Over 2.5 Rebounds)

Knecht is a rebounding machine in a smaller role, hitting this over at a 90% clip over the last 10 contests, averaging a strong 5.3 RPG in that span. His minutes have hovered around 24.6 per game lately, and he’s shown he can do the dirty work even in limited run—just last game, he snagged 3 boards in only 12.8 minutes. On the road, at 12+ MPG, he’s cleared this line in 11 of 12 games (92%). Facing a Kings team that ranks 2nd-worst in rebounds allowed to small forwards over the last 7 games, Knecht should have no trouble pulling down at least three.

Mikal Bridges (Over 17.5 Points+Assists)

Bridges has rediscovered his groove, posting 24.2 Points+Assists per game over his last seven outings and cashing the over in all of them (100% hit rate). Historically, he’s been a nightmare for the Timberwolves, clearing this line in nine straight meetings dating back to 2022. Given his boosted usage, consistent scoring, and solid playmaking, expect Bridges to stay in attack mode and surpass 17.5 PA yet again.

Rudy Gobert (Over 1.5 Free Throws Made)

Gobert’s recent form at the free-throw line has been steady, averaging 2.8 makes over his last 10 games (90% hit rate) and 2.9 over his last 15. He’s showing more aggression in the paint and earning extra trips to the stripe. With Karl-Anthony Towns ranking 3rd in most fouls committed, there’s a high probability Gobert sees extra contact and opportunities. This line is set low enough that two made freebies should be well within reach.

Stephon Castle (Over 14.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists)

Castle has been stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 21.6 PRA over his last 10 games (80% hit rate), and 20.1 PRA over his last 20 (still 80%). He’s seeing consistent floor time (around 30 MPG), and when he plays at least 27 minutes, he averages an impressive 22.9 PRA and hits this over at a 93% clip. Facing an Atlanta defense that gives up the 8th most rebounds to PGs and the 2nd most three-pointers to the position, plus a Hawks team playing at the 5th-fastest pace and the Spurs at 11th over the last 5 games, we should see plenty of possessions—and thus, plenty of chances for Castle to sail past 14.5 PRA.

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