Top NBA Player Trends: Monday, December 23, 2024

Jaden Ivey (Over 1.5 Free Throws Made)

Ivey has been a free-throw machine, posting a 90% hit rate over his last 10 games while averaging 2.7 free throws made. Even when you zoom out to a 20-game sample, he still maintains that 90% success rate at the stripe. His best matchups come against the Lakers, where he’s a flawless 100% (4.4 FTM average). Worth noting, the Lakers have been fouling more at home (18.5 per game, 15th most) than on the road (15.7, 3rd least) in their last 10 outings.

Julian Champagnie (Over 11.5 PRA)

Talk about an epic run: Champagnie hit the over in 23 straight games before finally missing by just 1.5 PRA (posted 10 PRA) against Portland. That small stumble sets the stage for a bounce-back, especially since he’s 2-for-2 against the 76ers with a whopping 21.5 PRA average—quite the jump from his already solid 19.5 average over his last 20. And the 76ers have been especially generous to SFs lately, giving up big numbers to everyone from Dean Wade (12 PRA) to Franz Wagner (40 PRA), so Champagnie is nicely positioned to feast.

Michael Porter Jr. (Over 0.5 Free Throws Made)

This is basically a gift from the oddsmakers. Porter has gone over 0.5 free throws in 100% of his last 10 games, averaging 2.4 FTM in that span. Over his last 20, he’s still hitting at an 85% clip while averaging 2 FTM. Home-court advantage only bolsters Porter’s reliability, where he’s made it 91% of the time compared to 73% on the road.

Stephon Castle (Over 2.5 Assists)

Castle’s early-season minutes were hovering around 20 per game, but now he’s getting 29.2 MPG in his last 20, allowing him to hit this over in 90% of those contests. That spike in floor time has him averaging 4.5 APG, and the matchup is lovely: the 76ers rank 4th in assists allowed to SGs this season, which makes Castle even more enticing.

Jamal Murray (Over 1.5 Free Throws Made)

Murray has been automatic from the stripe, hitting this over in 90% of games this season with a 3.2 FTM average. His free throw percentage is 81.7%, so once he’s at the line, you can all but pencil in the points. Plus, he tends to light it up against the Suns, posting 3.7 free throws made over his last nine matchups (hitting the over in eight of those nine).

Josh Giddey (Over 0.5 Three-Pointers)

Giddey has found his stroke, nailing at least one three-pointer in 81% of his games this year, with an average of 1.2 per contest. Over the last 20, that success rate climbs to 85%. Against Milwaukee, he’s been perfect in three meetings (100% hit rate, 2.3 threes per game), and the Bucks currently allow the most points and the fourth-most triples to opposing PGs.

Michael Porter Jr. (Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists)

If you were burned by Porter last time, don’t let that deter you. He’s covered 7.5 RA in 85% of his games this season, averaging 9.7, and that jumps to 9.8 RA over his last 20 (90% hit rate). He’s also lethal at home with a 91% success rate (9.9 RA). The Suns have been vulnerable, ranking 6th in rebounds allowed to SFs over their last 15 games, making this a strong spot for MPJ to do work on the glass and dish out a few assists.

Peyton Watson (Over 0.5 Steals+Blocks)

Watson might be a bench player, but he’s a defensive stat stuffer. He’s averaging 1.7 steals+blocks this season with an 88% hit rate. That efficiency ticks up to 1.9 and 90% over his last 20, while home matchups push him to 2.1 and 91%. The Suns have been coughing up the ball 9.1 times per game (8th most) in the past 10, and the Nuggets are averaging the 7th most steals in that same span (9.9), so Watson should keep piling up defensive numbers.

Stephon Castle (Over 0.5 Steals+Blocks)

Castle’s defensive upside has soared, as he’s averaging 1.3 steals+blocks over his last 10 for a 90% hit rate. Check his home/road splits and he’s even better away from home (89% vs. 78%). Most compelling is that when he logs 20+ minutes on the road, he hits this prop at a pristine 100%—and he’s been averaging 27.6 MPG over his last 10.

T.J. McConnell (Over 0.5 Steals)

McConnell might be under the radar, but his defensive acumen is undeniable. With an 89% season-long hit rate (1.3 steals per game), and an uptick to 1.5 steals and 90% over his last 20, you can trust him to produce. Best of all, he’s been a menace on the road, covering in 94% of away games—hitting in 15 of his last 16. That’s the kind of reliability you love to see in a steals prop.

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