Top NBA Player Trends: Saturday, December 21, 2024

Daniel Gafford Over 9.5 Points+Assists

Daniel Gafford has been a model of consistency, averaging 13.3 points+assists this season and covering this line at an 85% rate. Over his last 20 games, that number bumps up to 13.7, pushing his hit rate to 90%. The most impressive part is that whenever Luka Doncic sits while Kyrie Irving plays, Gafford has gone over 9.5 P+A in 100% of those contests. Adding even more appeal as the Clippers have been giving up the fifth-most assists to centers over their last seven game

Josh Hart Over 0.5 3-Pointers

Josh Hart only needs to sink a single three-pointer to cash this bet, and he’s been doing it regularly. He’s hitting this over at an 81% clip on the season while averaging 1.4 makes from downtown. In his last 20 games, that increases to an 85% hit rate and 1.5 made threes. Against the Pelicans specifically, Hart is perfect in his last three meetings. Considering New Orleans allows the most three-pointers in the league, there’s a good chance Hart extends his hot streak from beyond the arc.

Andrew Wiggins Over 1.5 Free Throws Made

Andrew Wiggins is averaging 3.3 free throws made this season, covering this line in 86% of his appearances. Over the last 20 games, his clip rises to 90% at 3.5 made free throws, and across a shorter window of 10 games, he’s bumped it up even further to 3.8. Although the Timberwolves are not known for racking up fouls, Wiggins just needs a couple of trips to the stripe to cash in. With a 77% free-throw percentage, he’s proved more than capable of converting once he’s there.

Damian Lillard Over 3.5 Rebounds

Damian Lillard is grabbing 4.5 rebounds per game on the season and covers this over 83% of the time. When playing at home, he averages 4.3 boards with an impressive 92% success rate. Historically, he’s dominated on the glass against the Wizards at home, posting a perfect 100% hit rate in his last three games and averaging seven rebounds in those matchups. The Wizards have been giving up plenty of boards to point guards, so Lillard should be in a great spot to maintain his strong rebounding performance.

Evan Mobley Over 1.5 Free Throws Made

Evan Mobley is typically good for 3.3 free throws made, which has him covering this over in 77% of his games. Over his last 20, that average climbs to 3.5 with an 80% hit rate. When he’s playing on his home floor, Mobley really dominates, averaging 3.8 free throws and covering in 90% of his last 10 home games. He’s also been remarkably consistent against the 76ers, going over 1.5 made free throws in 6 of his 7 matchups against them. With Philadelphia ranking second in fouls over their last 10 games, Mobley is primed for another strong outing at the line.

Jaden Ivey Over 1.5 Free Throws Made

Jaden Ivey is averaging 3.2 free throws made on the season and has cleared 1.5 at an 84% clip overall. He’s been even better recently, hitting this number in 90% of his last 10 games. On the road, he’s been unstoppable with a 93% hit rate and 3.4 makes from the stripe. Although Phoenix is middle-of-the-pack in terms of fouls committed, Ivey’s aggressive style should earn him the trips he needs to knock down a few freebies.

James Harden Over 3.5 Turnovers

James Harden has turned into a turnover machine lately, hitting the over on 3.5 turnovers in 12 straight games. On the road, he’s posting a massive 92% hit rate while averaging 5.2 giveaways. The Clippers force around 14 turnovers per game, and with Harden’s high usage rate and willingness to take risks, the likelihood of him going over again remains high.

Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 3-Pointers

Julian Champagnie has discovered a hot hand from long range, averaging 2.8 made threes over his last 20 games and covering this line at an 85% rate. Across his most recent five games, that skyrockets to a perfect 100% with an average of 3.6 makes from downtown. He faces a Portland defense that has allowed the second-most three-pointers to small forwards over the last seven games. With his stroke heating up and this ideal matchup, Champagnie looks set to continue piling on the treys.

Stephon Castle Over 0.5 Steals+Blocks

Stephon Castle has been active defensively, averaging 1.4 steals+blocks over his last 20 contests and hitting the over 85% of the time. Over his previous 10, he’s bumped that success rate to 90%. Going up against Portland only heightens the appeal, as point guards have been averaging 2.3 steals+blocks per game in their last eight against the Blazers. Castle just needs to notch one defensive play to cover, and given his recent form, that looks very attainable.

Ready to do your own research or find trends like this?