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SGP Targets are built around pitcher attack angles. I’m looking for teams facing arms with weak contact profile, poor run prevention, or recent form concerns.

🏆 Best SGP Target Teams 🏆

◆ Cubs vs Sugano
Best overall attack spot. Coors + 46.4% HardHit + 16.3% Barrel + .414 xwOBA.

◆ Braves vs Fedde
Low K, walks, ugly FIP/xFIP, and bad matchup history vs ATL.

◆ Rockies vs Rea
Coors boost plus 45.3% HardHit, 12.4% Barrel, and 1.35 WHIP.

◆ Reds vs Giolito
Traffic profile: 17.3% BB, -2.7% K-BB, 1.74 WHIP.

◆ Nationals vs Houser
Medium-confidence hits/TB angle because the pitcher profile is bad, but Oracle limits ceiling.

📈📉Best Betting Angles From The Slate (bottom of graphic)

Best way to use this sheet: focus on pitchers with strong recent form + opponent matchup weakness. I’m looking at K skill, workload, pitch count stability, and matchup swing/miss.

June 9 Pitching Prop Angles

📊 Paul Skenes
Elite profile even vs LAD. 82 SO, 26.6 K% vs current Dodgers, only 3.1 BB%, and a .258 xwOBA allowed. K over stays live.

📊 Logan Gilbert
One of the cleanest spots. 27.6 K% vs BAL with a .202 xBA and .274 xwOBA. K/outs profile looks strong.

📊 Taj Bradley
Big K angle vs Detroit. 34.6 K%, 3.8 BB%, .175 xBA, and .232 xwOBA in the matchup. Strong K-over profile.

📊 Chase Burns
Strong raw profile. 7-1, 2.05 ERA, 81 SO. No Padres matchup history, but the season form supports K/outs research.

📊 Max Meyer
K upside, but not clean. 35.7 K% vs Arizona, but also .314 xBA, .574 xSLG, and .398 xwOBA. K over live, hits/TB unders risky.

📊 J.T. Ginn
K over with volatility. 33.3 K% vs Milwaukee, but 13.3 BB% and 95.3 EV allowed. Strikeouts can hit, outs are less safe.

📊 Dylan Cease
Elite season K total with 92 SO, but Phillies matchup is dangerous: .543 xSLG and .370 xwOBA. Boom/bust K profile.

📊 Zack Wheeler
Strong run-prevention look. 2.31 ERA, soft 83.9 EV vs Toronto, .280 xwOBA. Outs/ER prevention stronger than forcing K over.

📊 Payton Tolle
Better run prevention than K upside. 2.28 ERA, but only 10.5 K% vs Tampa. Outs/ER prevention > K overs.

📊 Zac Gallen
Volatile bounce-back type. 33.3 K% vs Miami, but 20.0 BB% is the red flag. K upside exists, outs are risky.

📊 Freddy Peralta
Playable K over, but not clean. 23.4 K% vs STL with 10.3 BB% and .352 xwOBA. Strikeouts yes, outs risk.

📊 Lucas Giolito
Weird profile. 34.0 K% vs Cincinnati, but only 11 season SO and 14.0 BB%. High-risk K over only.

📊 Gerrit Cole
Name-value caution. Only 14 season SO and 17.0 K% vs Cleveland. K under is live if the line is inflated.

📊 Trevor Rogers
Fade profile. 6.29 ERA, 14.6 K%, 14.6 BB%, .537 xSLG, .393 xwOBA vs Seattle. K under / walks over / SEA bats.

📊 Eric Lauer
Bad damage profile. 5.74 ERA and .696 xSLG / .437 xwOBA vs Pittsburgh. Pirates hitter props are live.

📊 Erick Fedde
Strong fade. 4.94 ERA, only 11.3 K% vs Atlanta, .521 xSLG, .378 xwOBA. Braves bats + Fedde K under/outs under.

📊 Stephen Kolek
Low-K damage risk. 12.5 K% vs Texas with .335 xBA and .532 xSLG. Rangers hitter props stand out.

📊 Tomoyuki Sugano
Fade K props. 9.5 K% vs Cubs, .318 xBA, .655 xSLG, .420 xwOBA. Cubs TB/hits/RBI angles are live at Coors.

📊 Walbert Ureña
ERA looks good, matchup does not. 30.0 BB% vs Houston with .533 xSLG and .433 xwOBA. Astros bats/walks allowed angle.

📊 Adrian Houser
Fade K ceiling. 10.6 K% and 10.6 BB% vs Washington. Nationals contact props and Houser outs under are interesting.

📊 Nick Martinez
Low-K control arm. 14.8 K% vs Boston, but only 1.6 BB%. Walks under > K over. Boston contact props viable.

📊 Slade Cecconi
Fade K ceiling. 15.0 K% vs Yankees with .458 xSLG allowed. Yankees power/contact props are more interesting.

📊 Robert Gasser
Avoid K overs. Not enough K trust.

🏆 Quick Tier Board 🏆
◆ Best K-over profiles: Skenes, Bradley, Gilbert, Burns, Meyer, Ginn, Cease

◆ Best outs/run-prevention: Wheeler, Skenes, Gilbert, Tolle, Bradley

◆ Best fade/hitter targets: Rogers, Lauer, Fedde, Kolek, Sugano, Ureña, Houser

◆ K-under candidates: Rogers, Martinez, Cecconi, Kolek, Fedde, Sugano, Gasser

◆ Most volatile: Gallen, Meyer, Cease, Peralta, Giolito, Ginn

NRFI/YRFI angle: I’m not just looking at pitcher record. I’m weighing pitcher 1st-inning history, opponent 1st-inning AVG/wOBA, and runs per game in the 1st.

🏆 Cleanest NRFI Leans 🏆

◆ 1. Chase Burns vs Padres
11-1 NRFI. Padres: .148 AVG / .202 wOBA / 0.23 1st R/G.

◆ 2. Nick Martinez vs Red Sox
11-1 NRFI. Boston: .190 AVG / .259 wOBA / 0.30 1st R/G.

◆ 3. Zack Wheeler vs Blue Jays
6-2 NRFI. Toronto: .233 AVG / .295 wOBA / 0.40 1st R/G.

◆ 4. Max Meyer vs Diamondbacks
10-3 NRFI. Arizona: .207 AVG / .266 wOBA / 0.46 1st R/G.

◆ 5. Tomoyuki Sugano vs Cubs
8-4 NRFI. Cubs: .225 AVG / .290 wOBA / 0.38 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🚨 Biggest YRFI Pressure Leans 🚨

◆ 1. Adrian Houser vs Nationals
Houser is only 4-8 NRFI, and Washington owns 0.76 1st R/G.

◆ 2. Walbert Urena vs Astros
Houston: .308 AVG / .401 wOBA / 0.68 1st R/G.

◆ 3. Slade Cecconi vs Yankees
Yankees: .360 wOBA / 0.72 1st R/G.

◆ 4. J.T. Ginn vs Brewers
Ginn is 10-1 NRFI, but Milwaukee’s 0.73 1st R/G is a huge red flag.

◆ 5. Eric Lauer vs Pirates
Pirates: .359 wOBA / 0.68 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Seattle @ Baltimore
◆ Logan Gilbert vs BAL: Mixed. Gilbert’s 7-6 NRFI record is shaky, but Baltimore’s 0.46 1st R/G keeps NRFI alive.
◆ Trevor Rogers vs SEA: Slight NRFI lean at 8-3, but Seattle’s 0.54 1st R/G keeps YRFI in play.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Arizona @ Miami
◆ Zac Gallen vs MIA: AVG/wOBA lean NRFI, but Miami’s 0.58 1st R/G is not low. Mixed spot.
◆ Max Meyer vs ARI: Strong NRFI lean. Meyer is 10-3 NRFI and Arizona sits at .207 AVG / .266 wOBA / 0.46 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Boston @ Tampa Bay
◆ Payton Tolle vs TB: Pitcher leans NRFI, but Tampa’s .280 AVG / .369 wOBA creates YRFI pressure.
◆ Nick Martinez vs BOS: One of the cleanest NRFI looks. Martinez is 11-1 NRFI and Boston is only .190 AVG / .259 wOBA / 0.30 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 NY Yankees @ Cleveland
◆ Gerrit Cole vs CLE: NRFI lean, but small 3-0 sample. Cleveland’s 0.51 1st R/G is mid-range.
◆ Slade Cecconi vs NYY: YRFI warning. Yankees have a .360 wOBA and 0.72 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Minnesota @ Detroit
◆ Taj Bradley vs DET: YRFI lean. Detroit has a .289 AVG and 0.61 1st R/G.
◆ Troy Melton vs MIN: NRFI lean. Minnesota’s .197 AVG / .276 wOBA points to weak 1st-inning bats.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 LA Dodgers @ Pittsburgh
◆ Eric Lauer vs PIT: YRFI pressure. Pirates have a .359 wOBA and 0.68 1st R/G.
◆ Paul Skenes vs LAD: Mixed. Skenes supports NRFI, but Dodgers’ 0.64 1st R/G is dangerous.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Philadelphia @ Toronto
◆ Zack Wheeler vs TOR: Strong NRFI lean. Toronto is only .233 AVG / .295 wOBA / 0.40 1st R/G.
◆ Dylan Cease vs PHI: YRFI pressure. Phillies bring a .358 wOBA and 0.62 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 St. Louis @ NY Mets
◆ Dustin May vs NYM: Slight NRFI lean, but May’s 7-5 record is not clean.
◆ Freddy Peralta vs STL: Pitcher leans NRFI at 11-2, but St. Louis’ .287 AVG keeps YRFI live.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Atlanta @ Chicago White Sox
◆ Grant Holmes vs CHW: Mixed. Holmes is 9-3 NRFI, but Chicago’s 0.63 1st R/G is elevated.
◆ Brandon Eisert vs ATL: Small 2-0 sample. Atlanta has enough YRFI pressure at 0.55 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Texas @ Kansas City
◆ Nathan Eovaldi vs KC: Offense leans NRFI, but Eovaldi’s 6-6 record is neutral.
◆ Stephen Kolek vs TEX: Slight NRFI lean from Kolek’s 5-1 record, but Texas’ 0.57 1st R/G is a concern.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Chicago Cubs @ Colorado
◆ Colin Rea vs COL: Pitcher leans NRFI, but Coors and Colorado’s 0.56 1st R/G add risk.
◆ Tomoyuki Sugano vs CHC: Strong NRFI lean. Cubs are only .225 AVG / .290 wOBA / 0.38 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Houston @ LA Angels
◆ Kai-Wei Teng vs LAA: Slight YRFI pressure. Angels’ 0.58 1st R/G is above average.
◆ Walbert Urena vs HOU: Biggest conflict spot. Urena is 8-1 NRFI, but Houston screams YRFI: .308 AVG / .401 wOBA / 0.68 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Cincinnati @ San Diego
◆ Chase Burns vs SD: Cleanest NRFI profile. Burns is 11-1 NRFI and Padres are only .148 AVG / .202 wOBA / 0.23 1st R/G.
◆ Lucas Giolito vs CIN: Pitcher leans NRFI, but Cincinnati’s 0.63 1st R/G is dangerous.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Washington @ San Francisco
◆ Andrew Alvarez vs SF: Slight NRFI lean, but tiny 1-0 pitcher sample.
◆ Adrian Houser vs WSH: Strong YRFI lean. Houser is only 4-8 NRFI and Washington leads with 0.76 1st R/G.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

📊 Milwaukee @ Athletics
◆ Robert Gasser vs ATH: NRFI lean. Oakland’s .209 AVG / .296 wOBA is weak.
◆ J.T. Ginn vs MIL: Major conflict. Ginn is 10-1 NRFI, but Milwaukee’s 0.73 1st R/G is a big YRFI warning.

Heat Check is built for hitter props. These are not automatic bets — they’re hitters I want to compare against matchup, odds, and line value. These targets represent significant upside as well (4 of 14 players hit HRs so far).

🏆 Best Overall Target Order 🏆
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong
2. James Wood
3. Matt Olson
4. Spencer Steer
5. Willi Castro
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🎯 Cubs vs Tomoyuki Sugano
◆ Pete Crow-Armstrong ◆
Best angle: TB / HR / H+R+RBI

PCA is nuclear right now: 18 H, .419 AVG, 5 HR, 35 TB over his last 10.

Last 5: .500 AVG, 4 HR, 22 TB, 1.645 OPS.

Sugano allows loud contact, and this game is at Coors.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🎯 Braves vs Erick Fedde
◆ Matt Olson ◆
Best angle: TB / RBI / H+R+RBI

Olson has 12 H, 3 doubles, 3 HR, 24 TB, and a .964 OPS over his last 10 team games.

Fedde brings low K%, walks, ugly FIP/xFIP, and poor Braves matchup history.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🎯 Rockies vs Colin Rea
◆ Willi Castro ◆
Best angle: Hits / TB / H+R+RBI

Castro has 9 H, 5 RBI, 5 BB, and a .390 OBP over his last 10.

Rea brings a 45.3% Hard-Hit rate, 12.4% Barrel rate, 1.35 WHIP, and gets Coors.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🎯 Reds vs Lucas Giolito
◆ Spencer Steer ◆
Best angle: Hits / Runs / H+R+RBI

Steer has 9 H, 2 HR, 8 R over his last 10.

Also has a recent 2-HR game and a 24-game on-base streak.

Giolito’s profile screams traffic: 14.7% K, 17.3% BB, -2.7% K-BB, 1.74 WHIP.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🎯 Nationals vs Adrian Houser
◆ James Wood ◆
Best angle: Hits / TB / H+R+RBI

Wood has been crushing on the road: 13 H, .371 AVG, 3 HR, 11 R, 23 TB, .511 OBP, 1.168 OPS over his last 10 road games.

Houser is a medium-confidence hits/TB target, with the park limiting some ceiling.

since the Sat AM update:
✅ Moneyline Meta Picks: 9-1
✅ Moneyline Elite Picks: 3-0
✅ Spread Meta Picks: 4-2
✅ Spread Elite Picks: 4-0
✅ Strikeout Unders: 2-0 (59-24 this season)
✅ Walks Over/Under: 5-1 (66-32 this season)

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